NNSA Administrator Jill Hruby Remarks at the 2024 Nuclear Deterrence Summit

Good morning, everyone.  It is a pleasure to be here to provide updates on our work in the National Nuclear Security Administration and across our Nuclear Security Enterprise.

I will start my comments by discussing the current and emerging challenges in the global landscape and its impact on our priorities.  Then, I’ll cover updates on our progress that I think will impress you.  And finally, I’ll talk about plans for the upcoming year.

The Global Landscape

Today, we live in a world with significant nuclear security challenges both at home and around the world. As a result, NNSA is being asked to do more than at any time since the Manhattan Project.  This is true in all our missions - the nuclear deterrent, nuclear non-proliferation and counterterrorism, and naval reactors. 

The global nuclear landscape is not only more dangerous but also more dynamic than it has been in some time.  This last year alone, Russia continued its destabilizing behavior by stationing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, “de-ratifying” its accession to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, increasing its partnerships with Iran and North Korea, and vehemently rejecting arms control dialog with the United States.  In addition, China continues to modernize and expand its nuclear arsenal at a rapid pace while introducing advanced technologies like hypersonics and new dual-use technology.  As a result, both U.S. Strategic Command and the bipartisan Strategic Posture Commission are clear - we must be ready to deter two near-peer nuclear powers within a decade. 

Furthermore, while we have always thought of nuclear war as an existential threat, climate change has emerged as a potential second existential threat.  The United States and countries around the world are looking to nuclear energy to provide clean baseload power.  Late last year the IAEA released a report indicating that nuclear power could grow by as much as 140% by mid-century.  And at the recent COP28 climate talks, 25 nations signed onto a pledge to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050.  While nuclear energy production is an important step to combat climate change, its growth especially in newcomer nations, represents significant disruption to today’s nuclear proliferation, nuclear security, and nuclear terrorism norms. As nuclear materials, expertise, and the number and types of facilities increase, new solutions will be needed and NNSA needs to contribute.  The NNSA nonproliferation program also must continue to engage with the international community on fissile material minimization, increase situational awareness and domestic capabilities to prepare for a world without formal arms control agreements, strengthen existing partnerships, and work to establish new ones. 

In the naval propulsion program, the AUKUS agreement is now in the implementation phase.  A milestone was reached this year as the first Australians graduated from the U.S. naval nuclear reactor training program. Additionally, to maintain naval superiority, advancements in nuclear reactors must continue to provide the U.S. a competitive edge.  Given the global dynamics, it is becoming clear that we will need to restart a highly enriched uranium, HEU, capability in the U.S. in a few decades.  The Department of Energy has developed a coordinated strategy for uranium enrichment for civil nuclear power and future defense needs that we are beginning to implement.

Concurrent with these challenges in nuclear deterrence, nonproliferation and counterterrorism, and naval propulsion, we need to revitalize our old infrastructure and keep pace with emerging technologies.  It is critical to rebuild our national nuclear infrastructure, largely stood up during the Manhattan project and just after World War II, to create a modern, fully capable enterprise that is flexible and resilient for the next 50 years or more.  We appreciate the funding that has been provided by Congress for this purpose even as we recognize the growing scale and cost of the renovation necessary. However, as I’ve talked about before, the Covid pandemic and the current environment have made large scale construction difficult.  Acute supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and inflation have been problematic since Covid and have exacerbated long-standing issues.  In a paper entitled “The Strange and Awful Path of Productivity in the U.S. Construction Sector,” Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson conclude that aggregate data show a decades long decline in U.S. construction productivity.  And in the book “How Big Things Get Done,” Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner present evidence that large nuclear projects are historically the most over schedule and budget of all complex construction activities.  These are headwinds that we are working to overcome for our NNSA modernization.

On the emerging technology front, the rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence is the latest example of the pace of change.  AI has the potential to significantly improve efficiency and unlock new pathways across our mission space, and we are obliged to pursue these possibilities.  At the same time, as required by the AI Executive Order released late last year, the Department of Energy and the NNSA must develop safeguards to keep AI from becoming a proliferation pathway for weapons of mass destruction.  Balancing our approach on emerging technologies like these, taking advantage of the improvements they can offer while working with our interagency and international partners to mitigate the risks will be key going forward.  In this spirit, I signed a Trilateral Framework in December with counterparts from Japan and the Republic of Korea that sets the basis for scientific collaboration on emerging technology issues. We believe allies and partners are key to both rapid utilization and future breakthroughs in emerging technologies.

Progress

These shifts in the global environment have clear implication on our mission priorities.  We have made real progress toward both the current program of record and introduced adjustments that provide clear, achievable benefits.

This past year alone, NNSA has delivered more than 200 modernized weapons to the Department of Defense.  There should be no doubt in anyone’s minds – NNSA is modernizing our stockpile both on-schedule and at pace.

Furthermore, to respond to global conditions, we announced in October the addition of a weapon to the program of record, called the B61-13.  This weapon will replace some of the B61-7 weapons in the stockpile and have the safety, security, and accuracy of the B61-12 with an ability to hold large area or hard targets at risk.  We will decrease the number of B61-12s by the number of B61-13s we build, so the number of weapons in the stockpile will not increase because of this decision.  The FY2024 NDAA authorized both this weapon and the use B83-1 funds to begin work immediately and take advantage of active B61 production capabilities.

The FY 2024 NDAA also authorized the Sea-Launched Cruise Missile – Nuclear, or SLCM-N, as part of the program of record with initial operating capability by 2034. SLCM-N will provide a new low yield at sea nuclear deterrent.  NNSA is working closely with the Navy and Office of Secretary of Defense to develop a recommendation for Congress by early March on the details of the SLCM-N program.

Now I would like to provide an update on infrastructure revitalization.  First, let me be clear about our objective in infrastructure modernization – we aim to substantively increase our flexibility and resilience, meet production schedules safely, introduce modern and efficient technologies, and be realistic about costs while exercising fiscal responsibility. 

As a top priority, we remain committed to producing a minimum of 80 pits per year as close to 2030 as possible.  The Los Alamos Plutonium Pit Production Project, LAP-4, continues to progress while developing qualified production processes for the W87-1 pit.  In FY23, the Nuclear Security Enterprise completed nine development plutonium pit builds with five more pits assembled.  And we expect the first “diamond stamped” war reserve plutonium pit for the W87-1 this year.  On the Savannah River Plutonium Processing Facility, SRPPF, we continue with design and simultaneous construction start, baseline cost and schedule updates, and long lead procurement. We have reconciled safety basis issues and put in place an NNSA first-of-its-kind construction management contract.  Our goal for SRPPF is aggressive – complete construction by 2032 so that rate production can support the W93 schedule. 

Our other large-scale project, the Uranium Processing Facility at Y-12 is now over 70% complete.  Glove boxes are installed in the main process building, and overall equipment deliveries are 96% complete.  We intend to start other large projects in a realistic manner assuming budget support. For example, we broke ground on the Lithium Processing Facility at Y-12 and initial site preparation work is now underway with construction set to begin in mid-2025.  We are initiating a new approach for Kansas City expansion, and have the High Explosives Synthesis and Fabrication Production Facility at Pantex and the Tritium Finishing Facility at Savannah River in our sights.

Smaller scale projects also continue apace. Last year we had ribbon cuttings for the Y-12 new emergency operations center and fire station, and at Sandia for a new emergency operations center.  These projects are examples of our ability to deliver commercial-like construction projects to replace substandard capabilities on time and budget through programs like EMC². 

Our science program is the essential foundation for design, certification, and assessment of our stockpile. The December 2022 experiment that achieved ignition at the National Ignition Facility was the most-searched scientific breakthrough on Google in the past 25 years.  We also expect El Capitan to come online this year at Lawrence Livermore. At over two exaflops it will, for a time, be the world’s largest supercomputer and provide exciting new capabilities for our Stockpile Stewardship Program.  We must continue to refresh and invest in our science because we simply will not have a safe, secure, reliable, and effective stockpile without it. 

Our nonproliferation program reached an important scientific and engineering milestone this year by successfully conducting a chemical explosive test in P tunnel at the Nevada National Security Site, NNSS.  This experiment advanced our ability to detect very low yield underground nuclear explosive tests around the world.  In keeping with our commitment to transparency, we provided advanced notification to international organizations.  Separately, we brought nongovernmental experts to the site to see first-hand what we do at NNSS.  Although we use the site for both subcritical and nonproliferation experiments, we have been clear that we have no plans to conduct a nuclear explosive test even though, as required, we maintain and evaluate test readiness.

Also, following seven years of extensive planning and coordination, last year the first shipment of downblended surplus plutonium was transported from K-Area at Savannah River to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant for final disposition.  This is evidence of our continued commitment to reduce excess fissile material.  We also cut the ribbon for the Mobile Melt-Consolidate system, a flexible tool that can be deployed to downblend and treat a variety of HEU materials safely and reliably, capitalizing on more than two decades of materials science, engineering, and research and development.  We’ll be putting this new system to work quickly, assisting Norway in downblending its entire inventory of HEU.  When downblending in Norway is complete in a few years, it will be the 49^th country plus Taiwan that NNSA has helped eliminate weapons-usable nuclear material.  This is a remarkable nonproliferation accomplishment.

Additionally, we continue to advance our capabilities in space-based nuclear monitoring.  Just yesterday, our nonproliferation R&D program authorized the delivery of the first newly completed next-generation sensor, the Global Burst Detector IIIF-01, to the U.S. Space Force.  These next-generation sensor designs provide significantly improved capabilities and are lighter than current models.  Representing the culmination of almost a decade of research and development with Sandia and Los Alamos, they will assist with detecting any nuclear detonation in the atmosphere or outer space.  The Space Force will integrate the sensor with a GPS satellite where it will join a constellation of space-based sensors known as the U.S. Nuclear Detonation Detection System that continuously monitors the globe for worldwide compliance with nuclear test-ban treaties.

Finally, naval reactors continues to meet its delivery schedule, advance AUKUS goals, and progress its infrastructure projects.  The new Spent Fuel Handling Facility is well underway in Idaho and will provide the ability to unload and prepare spent fuel for evaluation in modern and appropriately sized facilities. 

The Year Ahead

While these accomplishments are significant and deserve to be celebrated, we remain clear-eyed about the demand ahead. 

Naturally, the principal focus will remain delivering the program of record including adjustments needed for the future deterrent.  NNSA has two high priority initiatives aimed at improving weapons delivery – an enterprise-wide digital engineering effort and introduction of agile project management. These initiatives are in addition to bringing new capabilities on-line and learning as we advance in our modernization efforts.  Our overall intent is to move faster and improve schedule margin in weapon delivery to provide options as the world evolves. 

Of course, we also need the right facilities at the right time for all our missions.  To better understand, synchronize, and communicate our infrastructure needs, we have embarked on creating an Enterprise Blueprint.  The Blueprint will describe the facilities we need, the places we need them, and the tie-in to mission requirements.  To reinforce what I mentioned earlier, the underlying philosophy is to create a flexible, resilient enterprise that meets dynamic demands and continuously produce weapons and the required science.  A fully developed Enterprise Blueprint, which we expect to release this fall, will provide the road map.

Finally, I want to touch briefly on some initiatives to improve construction challenges. Although staffing was an issue in 2022, we’ve had success recruiting skilled trade nationally and providing transportation and lodging options. We have also begun working with the Army Corps of Engineers on best practices, especially in cost estimating, and our Infrastructure Organization, NA-90, is introducing more disciplined metrics.  We are more aggressively looking at technological advancement and implementation in new and existing facilities to save footprint and improve efficiency throughput.  And we continue to explore new models such as the land acquisition and design/build approach for KC expansion.

Before I wrap up, I want to touch on the NNSA M&O contract strategy.  As I’ve said since I was confirmed in this position, I am determined to improve NNSA M&O contracting to be more strategic and holistic, less disruptive to mission and workforce, and more of a true partnership. Many recommendations for contract improvements were embedded in the Enhancing Mission Delivery Initiative, EMDI, report.  Some of those recommendations were acted on quickly including phasing out one-year at a time contract extensions and exercising all available options where appropriate. 

The first new contracting action we undertook was separation of the Y-12 and Pantex contracts and the competition for Pantex with updated contract terms and proposal evaluation factors.  The Pantex contract will have a five-year base period with three five-year options. A potentially longer overall term for the Pantex contract will put NNSA on the path to planning contract competitions that are spaced further apart.  Although not immediately achievable, we would like two years between competitions to help avoid conflicts for key personnel and allow the most robust competition. Since we have eight contracts, if they are spaced two years apart contracts will need to run about 16 years on average. In terms of updated evaluation criteria, the Pantex RFP includes an evaluation factor that places emphasis on technical approaches to mission delivery. The evaluation phase of Pantex proposals is underway and I’m excited to see what we learn. 

We have now developed a plan for the next contracting actions.  These actions were derived from the same thoughts just discussed.  In addition, other factors include current contractor performance and major upcoming program deliverables, as well as fair competition and the introduction of new ideas.

Given these principles, here are our expectations on the next four contract actions:

First, begin the competition process for the Savannah River Site starting with an RFI this Spring. This schedule should allow for the two-year gap with Pantex, transition the current contract at the end of September 2026, and align contract terms more closely with other NNSA sites.  This should be minimally disruptive to the SRPPF construction project due to the Construction Management contract held by Fluor. We will be fully partnered with Environmental Management to assure mission continuity for their work.

Next, we plan to exercise both option years beyond the base period on the Y-12 contract to enable completion of UPF construction and site separation.  This contract will then expire in September 2027.  The spacing with Savannah River is not the two years we desire, but because of the early start on the contract competition for Savannah River, we believe it will work. 

Finally, we intend to extend the contracts at Kansas City National Security Campus and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.  These contracts are set to expire in 2025 and 2026 respectively.  The extensions are dependent on Secretarial approval and other negotiations with each M&O.  We hope to employ best contracting practices in both.  By announcing these decisions now, we have time to seek approval and negotiate terms.  If we cannot come to closure, we will adjust our plans. 

With these four actions, we believe the Enterprise will be best positioned to deliver, the workforce will be focused, and the M&O partners will have time to plan. This will require significant attention, but I believe is critical to the future success of NNSA.

Conclusion

I am very proud of all we are accomplishing in NNSA.  We are delivering today and creating a future Enterprise that is responsive to global conditions.  One thing is certain, we need the nuclear security enterprise to be at its best.  We are being proactive, creative, and efficient with finite resources while delivering high quality products on time. People, safety, and security remain top priorities.

We will continue to work with our partners and allies, domestic and international, to promote global stability and combat the existential threats we face.  Thank you for your role in this indispensable Enterprise. I look forward to your questions.