Fact #609: February 8, 2010 The Transportation Petroleum Gap

In 1989 the transportation sector petroleum consumption surpassed U.S. petroleum production for the first time, creating a gap that must be met with imports of petroleum. By the year 2035, transportation petroleum consumption is expected to grow to more than 17 million barrels per day; at that time, the gap between U.S. production and transportation consumption will be about 5 million barrels per day (when including the non-petroleum sources).

U.S. Petroleum Production and Consumption, 1970-2035

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Note: The U.S. Production has two lines after 2005. The solid line is conventional sources of petroleum, including crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gains. The dashed line adds in other non-petroleum sources, including ethanol, biomass, liquids from coal, other blending components, other hydrocarbons, and ethers. The sharp increase in values between 2007 and 2008 are caused by the data change from historical to projected values.

Supporting Information

**Historical and Future U.S. Petroleum Production and Transportation Petroleum Use (Million barrels per day)**
Year	Autos	Light Trucks	Medium & Heavy Trucks	Air	Water	Off-Highway	Rail	Pipeline	Total Transportation	U.S. Petroleum Production with Other Inputs 2007-on (dotted line)	U.S. Petroleum Production without Other Inputs 2007-on
1970	4.008	0.727	0.794	0.617	0.397	0.347	0.262	0.468	7.621	11.656	11.656
1971	4.220	0.796	0.825	0.616	0.369	0.339	0.263	0.478	7.906	11.537	11.537
1972	4.495	0.894	0.899	0.621	0.376	0.331	0.274	0.490	8.380	11.605	11.605
1973	4.635	0.993	0.986	0.650	0.425	0.338	0.284	0.471	8.783	11.399	11.399
1974	4.401	0.983	0.987	0.592	0.417	0.314	0.293	0.441	8.428	10.942	10.942
1975	4.399	1.126	1.005	0.602	0.440	0.316	0.264	0.397	8.547	10.467	10.467
1976	4.648	1.229	1.062	0.630	0.514	0.327	0.274	0.379	9.064	10.241	10.241
1977	4.697	1.321	1.172	0.638	0.558	0.323	0.279	0.371	9.359	10.387	10.387
1978	4.795	1.426	1.298	0.672	0.655	0.310	0.278	0.370	9.805	10.771	10.771
1979	4.559	1.443	1.342	0.703	0.545	0.316	0.287	0.406	9.600	10.662	10.662
1980	4.169	1.405	1.336	0.677	0.660	0.317	0.278	0.423	9.265	10.797	10.797
1981	4.119	1.400	1.355	0.687	0.601	0.305	0.265	0.427	9.158	10.688	10.688
1982	4.109	1.340	1.350	0.682	0.504	0.283	0.227	0.404	8.898	10.729	10.729
1983	4.168	1.412	1.380	0.680	0.462	0.278	0.226	0.350	8.955	10.734	10.734
1984	4.185	1.510	1.426	0.760	0.457	0.337	0.251	0.369	9.295	11.092	11.092
1985	4.230	1.612	1.434	0.792	0.413	0.350	0.235	0.357	9.424	11.138	11.138
1986	4.327	1.714	1.473	0.861	0.627	0.352	0.230	0.347	9.932	10.847	10.847
1987	4.337	1.804	1.523	0.897	0.653	0.356	0.235	0.365	10.169	10.583	10.583
1988	4.338	1.926	1.553	0.934	0.671	0.357	0.241	0.413	10.432	10.448	10.448
1989	4.373	1.963	1.591	0.936	0.718	0.342	0.243	0.421	10.587	9.820	9.820
1990	4.115	2.102	1.654	0.981	0.683	0.357	0.239	0.436	10.567	9.597	9.597
1991	3.803	2.255	1.691	0.916	0.721	0.365	0.226	0.406	10.382	9.791	9.791
1992	3.870	2.417	1.725	0.930	0.757	0.345	0.231	0.399	10.675	9.667	9.667
1993	3.964	2.530	1.776	0.938	0.680	0.300	0.239	0.418	10.845	9.349	9.349
1994	4.013	2.605	1.871	0.978	0.660	0.309	0.254	0.449	11.140	9.156	9.156
1995	4.022	2.690	1.947	1.011	0.695	0.316	0.264	0.457	11.400	9.096	9.096
1996	4.090	2.795	1.999	1.042	0.667	0.323	0.270	0.462	11.647	9.157	9.157
1997	4.126	2.913	2.021	1.087	0.591	0.337	0.271	0.483	11.828	9.118	9.118
1998	4.233	2.977	2.085	1.120	0.582	0.337	0.273	0.424	12.031	8.897	8.897
1999	4.327	3.118	2.286	1.167	0.647	0.320	0.283	0.429	12.576	8.617	8.617
2000	4.311	3.121	2.375	1.204	0.687	0.326	0.284	0.427	12.734	8.704	8.704
2001	4.339	3.154	2.366	1.139	0.561	0.348	0.285	0.418	12.610	8.573	8.573
2002	4.447	3.156	2.469	1.045	0.590	0.355	0.286	0.440	12.787	8.582	8.582
2003	4.383	3.567	2.401	1.047	0.508	0.364	0.291	0.401	12.963	8.374	8.374
2004	4.419	3.713	2.233	1.109	0.614	0.372	0.307	0.388	13.157	8.302	8.302
2005	4.536	3.446	2.495	1.170	0.647	0.376	0.310	0.398	13.378	7.885	7.885
2006	4.414	3.566	2.546	1.186	0.686	0.376	0.316	0.398	13.488	7.835	7.835
2007	4.368	3.626	2.583	1.185	0.736	0.376	0.311	0.417	13.603	7.843	7.843
2008	4.110	4.774	2.445	1.330	0.663	0.403	0.309	0.440	14.474	8.524	7.743
2009	4.025	4.740	2.211	1.278	0.626	0.415	0.297	0.430	14.022	8.992	8.029
2010	4.070	4.899	2.228	1.282	0.644	0.421	0.274	0.432	14.249	9.112	8.020
2011	4.105	5.064	2.334	1.257	0.664	0.425	0.272	0.421	14.542	9.411	8.236
2012	4.064	5.116	2.438	1.267	0.667	0.435	0.286	0.418	14.691	9.495	8.280
2013	4.027	5.124	2.509	1.285	0.670	0.445	0.296	0.409	14.764	9.749	8.445
2014	3.999	5.119	2.552	1.301	0.672	0.454	0.302	0.411	14.810	9.891	8.516
2015	3.988	5.101	2.586	1.325	0.675	0.454	0.308	0.419	14.856	10.004	8.585
2016	4.001	5.079	2.619	1.345	0.677	0.454	0.308	0.420	14.904	10.067	8.565
2017	4.037	5.067	2.654	1.366	0.680	0.462	0.314	0.423	15.001	10.232	8.670
2018	4.056	5.020	2.695	1.387	0.683	0.469	0.317	0.427	15.054	10.386	8.787
2019	4.120	4.998	2.741	1.407	0.686	0.478	0.322	0.430	15.181	10.603	8.957
2020	4.200	4.966	2.783	1.427	0.689	0.477	0.326	0.432	15.300	10.766	9.057
2021	4.292	4.935	2.813	1.446	0.690	0.475	0.328	0.430	15.411	10.894	9.099
2022	4.406	4.931	2.841	1.462	0.692	0.483	0.332	0.432	15.580	11.024	9.054
2023	4.485	4.885	2.880	1.476	0.694	0.491	0.334	0.457	15.703	10.957	8.976
2024	4.572	4.844	2.928	1.488	0.698	0.500	0.336	0.486	15.852	10.998	8.963
2025	4.666	4.810	2.979	1.499	0.700	0.499	0.338	0.489	15.980	11.151	9.041
2026	4.762	4.788	3.031	1.509	0.703	0.504	0.343	0.491	16.130	11.296	9.104
2027	4.855	4.773	3.081	1.518	0.706	0.509	0.343	0.495	16.279	11.482	9.185
2028	4.919	4.734	3.129	1.526	0.708	0.513	0.346	0.500	16.375	11.528	9.149
2029	4.992	4.708	3.177	1.535	0.710	0.518	0.349	0.500	16.488	11.626	9.166
2030	5.088	4.708	3.230	1.543	0.712	0.523	0.350	0.502	16.656	11.699	9.149
2031	5.182	4.704	3.281	1.552	0.713	0.518	0.354	0.502	16.807	11.806	9.122
2032	5.268	4.696	3.331	1.559	0.715	0.518	0.355	0.505	16.946	11.936	9.149
2033	5.380	4.715	3.386	1.565	0.718	0.518	0.357	0.505	17.144	12.200	9.304
2034	5.474	4.720	3.444	1.573	0.720	0.518	0.359	0.507	17.315	12.301	9.278
2035	5.567	4.729	3.507	1.580	0.722	0.523	0.361	0.508	17.496	12.339	9.234
Sources: 1973-2007 from Davis, S.C. and Diegel, S.W., "Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 28," Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 2009. 2008-2035 from EIA, "Annual Energy Outlook 2010," Energy Information Administration, DOE/EIA-0383(2010), U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 2010.

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Fact #609: February 8, 2010 The Transportation Petroleum Gap

U.S. Petroleum Production and Consumption, 1970-2035 Image

Supporting Information

U.S. Petroleum Production and Consumption, 1970-2035

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